A Handmade IPO for Bankers, BrokerDealers and Maybe Investors

Posted on March 5, 2015 by admin

BrokerDealer.com blog IPO update and profile of Etsy.com pending initial public offering is courtesy of extract from 5 March story by Bloomberg View’s Matt Levine, “The Etsy IPO and the Triangle Document.” Brokerdealers and bankers alike have been anticipating Etsy’s IPO launch as it could be a big test for companies that have growing businesses and devoted followings and are considering launching their own IPOs. Etsy is a peer-to-peer e-commerce website focused on handmade or vintage items and supplies, as well as unique factory-manufactured items. Now from Bloomberg View’s Matt Levine…

How twee.

You occasionally read about banks’ pitches to take hot companies public, and they are often cringe-worthy: Bankers wore band t-shirts to pitch Pandora, and UBS dressed “around 75 of its employees in Lululemon gear and had them descend upon Central Park for a ‘flash mob’ yoga session” to pitch Lululemon for some reason. What do you think Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Allen & Company did to win the Etsy initial public offering? Did they hand-write the pitchbooks in fountain pen? Crochet them? Or just produce them normally in PowerPoint on their computers, but they were wooden computers? Did everyone else know about this?

The company was founded by Rob Kalin, a carpenter making handmade wooden computers with nowhere to sell them.

So obviously the Internet beckoned. Anyway, Etsy filed its preliminary prospectus yesterday, without a lot of capitalization numbers; Bloomberg reports that it’s seeking to sell about $300 million of stock, while DealBook estimates its pre-money valuation at about $322 million, so, that’s kind of weird. Use of proceeds is “general corporate purposes,” as one does, plus putting $300,000 — 10 basis points of the deal? — into the company’s Etsy.org nonprofit. But unlike a bunch of the internetty companies that I make fun of for going public for no particular reason other than cashing out insiders, Etsy is growing, had a $15.2 million net loss last year, and could probably use the money. (It’s also cashing out some insiders obviously.) The filing also emphasizes “authenticity” and includes this graphic explaining why Etsy works:

To continue reading Matt Levine’s article from Bloomberg View, please click here

Shake Shack IPO Could Leave Bad Taste

Posted on February 18, 2015 by admin

Brokerdealer.com blog udpate courtesy of Forbes’ contributor Jeff Golman.

In late December, brokerdealer.com blogged about the exciting news regarding Shake Shack applying for an IPO. Shake Shack, a New York burger chain burger chain created by famous restaurateur Danny Meyer, is known for its fresh cut fires, 100% all beef burgers and hot dogs, and most of all its delicious shakes. The chain has been growing ever since its opening in New York City in 2000 and now has 63 locations open worldwide. Forbes’ contributor Jeff Golman believes that the burger chain’s IPO is too good to be true and is overdone.

By now, I’m sure you know all about Shake Shack’s recent IPO. The burger chain’s nearly $2 billion valuation and 130% pop on day-one of trading was nothing short of impressive, albeit slightly anticipated.

Shake Shack is just the most recent in a string of “fast-casual” restaurants to go public in the past 10 years, and investors are eating them up. However, it’s important to note that Shake Shack’s unit economics and demographic positioning made this a particularly interesting investment opportunity, which will be incredibly difficult to duplicate. And while the IPO may be a positive sign for similarly-placed restaurant concepts, it cannot be applied across the board.

The public offering has always been a credible and attractive exit opportunity for the right concept, but it has boomed in the past year with some 1,205 issuers raising nearly $249 billion globally, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Increased confidence in the U.S. economy, low interest rates and positive IPO performance have combined to encourage businesses to make offerings and investors to take greater risks.

However, just because a company can go public, doesn’t mean it should. Successful IPOs require a very impressive growth profile, and even the most well-positioned company still runs the risk of failure. Therefore, for many, a merger or acquisition may be a safer, smarter and preferred method of growing and funding a business.

One of the major challenges of going public is the overwhelming emphasis on short-term financial performance. For example, the moment Shake Shack comes out with a disappointing quarter, its stock will likely drop, and possibly sharply. Since shareholders and analysts tend to concentrate on short-term earnings rather than long-term return on capital, public companies must often shift focus to meeting quarterly targets rather than bolstering strategic opportunities and innovation. In short, it’s hard to invest in long-term growth when you’re battling the markets.

Another significant roadblock in the IPO route is that they don’t generate immediate liquidity. The ability to cash out completely on day one is unique to M&A exits, and in today’s robust M&A market the more quickly this money can be put to work, the better.

2014 was the strongest year for deal-making since before the recession with a 47% increase in the total value of worldwide M&A since 2013. There’s a lot of money in the private market right now, and anyone looking to exit should consider taking advantage. The lower costs, corporate stability, decreased risk, greater flexibility for management, and more stable valuations provided by a merger or acquisition far outweigh the benefits of being listed on the public market. Yes, IPOs are hot right now, but the problem with heat is that it always dies down. It may be easy to label Shake Shack’s offering as a success today, but time will tell if they can live up to the hype.

It’s in our nature to look out for “the next big thing,” and once we find it there’s no turning back. But there is something to be said for stability and consistency. One of the reasons Americans love burgers isn’t just the delicious taste, but the sense of nostalgia we feel when we eat them. They bring us back to the good old days when life was just a little bit simpler. Just like a good burger, M&A is a slow cook aiming to provide the best flavor.

For the original article, click here

China IPO Market Mints Two More Bejing Billionaires; Video Game Maker Kunlun Tech and Spring Airlines Execs Profit from China A-Share Market

Posted on February 4, 2015 by admin

BrokerDealer.com blog update courtesy of reporting from 3 Feb edition of Bloomberg LP.

Zhou Yahui, chairman and president of Beijing Kunlun Tech Co., became a billionaire after shares of the Internet video game developer more than doubled since its trading debut two weeks ago.

Zhou, 37, has a $1.7 billion fortune, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The stock surged by the 44 percent stock exchange limit at its trading debut on Jan. 21, and climbed by the maximum daily price increase of 10 percent for nine straight days.

The new billionaire is the second in China this week as investors are showing an increasing appetite for the nation’s initial public offerings. Kunlun Tech is also riding a rally in the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks equities on the smaller of China’s two stock exchanges, whose 8.3 percent return this year beat all benchmark indexes in Asia.

“Shares jumped because new stocks are rare in China’s A- share market,” said James Hu Jiaming, a Shanghai-based analyst from China brokerdealer Capital Securities Corp., adding that “online gaming has been riding a bull market since the second half of last year.”

There has been an “accelerated growth” in the online gaming industry, driven by the popularity of mobile-phone applications such as WeChat, he added.

The gains haven’t made Kunlun Tech expensive relative to its peers. The stock is trading at 34 times earnings, compared with 240 times for China’s information technology companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Shenzhen index has a multiple of 37.

Spring Airlines Co. Chairman Wang Zhenghua became a billionaire yesterday as the stock surged following the company’s initial public offering, the first for a Chinese airline since 2002.

Shares of the low-cost carrier also jumped 44 percent on its trading debut on Jan. 21 and rose by the daily limit for a ninth day today, pushing his net worth to $1.1 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Private Market Valuations Exceed IPO Valuations: Is This a Bubble??

Posted on January 3, 2015January 3, 2015 by admin

Brokerdealer.com blog update inspired by 2 Jan WSJ column by business news journalist Liam Denning

For broker-dealers, investment bankers, and those following the investment strategies of private equity and venture capital firms, this is one of the better plain-speak summaries profiling the current climate of investing in private companies. The recent outsized valuations during 2014 have caused greybeard investors to scratch their heads…as the outsized pre-IPO valuations are counter-intuitive to traditional investment analysis of private companies, particularly given the assortment of “lower-than-last-private round” post IPO valuations that these same companies are being given in the public marketplace.

For private companies that wish to network with deep-pocketed angel and/or institutional investors, Brokerdealer.com provides an investor forum that connects start-up entrepreneurs with those who can see the forest through the trees.

Below please find excerpts of Liam Denning’s reporting..

Buying a stock, with all its attendant filings, analyst coverage and forecasts, still can be a gamble. So imagine getting excited about one isolated price signal on a private company with all the disclosure of the Air Force’s Area 51.

Yet that is what is setting pulses racing as 2015 dawns. Xiaomi, a closely held Chinese smartphone maker, recently raised $1.1 billion at an implied valuation of more than $46 billion. That puts it ahead of Uber Technologies, the unlisted ride-booking application developer that got new funding in December valuing it at $41 billion. Both numbers also are higher than the market capitalizations of roughly three-quarters of the S&P 500’s members.

In theory, such startup valuations matter little to anyone but a relative handful of founders, employees and venture capitalists. The average investor doesn’t get a seat at the table or more than an occasional glimpse of what even is on the table.

In practice, news of such amazing, and seemingly unobtainable, investments stoke bullish sentiment, leaving individual investors potentially vulnerable.
Venture capitalists and other insiders usually do extensive due diligence before committing to the likes of Uber. But their basis for valuation differs from the approach of mainstream investors buying stocks, with venture funds also considering exit timelines, the cash needs of a startup to keep expanding and maintaining incentives for management and owners as equity stakes get parceled out. They also can, of course, just get things wrong.

Ordinary investors also must consider the wider context. In a world thirsting for yield amid ultralow interest rates, money has sought riskier corners of the market. Almost $24 billion of new commitments flowed to U.S. venture funds in the first nine months of 2014, according to the latest data from Thomson Reuters and the National Venture Capital Association. That is more than in each of the preceding five years in their entirety and sets up 2014 to have been the biggest year for new venture money since before the financial crisis.

This raises the risk of dollars being deployed into questionable businesses, which then eventually find their way into the wider market via initial public offerings, which are priced off the back of those high startup valuations.

For the entire WSJ story, please click here.

IPO Market Recovers, Gives Some Hope to Silicon Valley, But Not Much

Posted on December 31, 2014December 31, 2014 by admin

Brokerdealer.com blog update profiles the recovery of the IPO market and the effects it had on Silicon Valley companies courtesy of Venture Beat’s Chris O’Brien.

Although it was a great year for IPOs, it was not necessarily a good for brokerdealers, as O’Brien explains later on, returns on IPOs in 2014 took a dramatic drop compared to returns on IPOs in 2013. Nonetheless, a strong IPO showing is projected for 2015, which could create big returns for brokerdealers in the New Year. In addition, Silicon Valley has plenty to stress as about as there wasn’t a huge IPO growth made in tech industries, the surge of IPOs came from health and biotech fields.

A tech industry that had spent years waiting for a revived IPO market finally got its wish in 2014.

The overall IPO market reached a level not seen since 2000. And Silicon Valley companies rode that wave as venture-backed IPOs soared, according to year-end data from Renaissance Capital.

Within these ample gold and silver linings, there are a few clouds looming for the tech industry as well.

First, let’s start with the good news. Here are the highlights from Renaissance:

The 273 IPOs in 2014 was the most since 406 IPOs in 2000.
IPOs were up 23 percent over 2013, even though there were some global scares like the Ukraine crisis and Ebola that in years past might have causes stock markets to freak out.
Money raised climbed 55 percent to $85 billion, though Alibaba accounted for $22 billion of that.
The number of venture-backed IPOs climbed to 124 this year, up from just seven in the dark economic year of 2008.
A solid pipeline and strong US economy should mean another strong IPO showing in 2015.

So, what’s there to worry about amid all this rosy news?

1. Returns were down: The boom in the number of IPOs was not necessarily great for investors. Average IPO returns were only 16 percent, a big drop from the 41 percent return on IPOs in 2013. That could put a chill on IPOs in 2015 if the trend continues.

2. Tech is not king: The surge in IPOs was led by healthcare and biotech IPOs. In particular, the overall numbers were padded by the 100 healthcare IPOs in 2014, a jump from 54 the year before. Slice off that healthcare increase, which mainly included a lot of small-cap companies, and the number of IPO offerings was about the same as 2013.

3. 2014 was very good, not great, for tech: There were 55 tech IPOs in 2014, up from 45 the year before. Those IPOs raised $32 billion, though that includes Alibaba’s $22 billion haul. Back that out, and you still have a nice increase from the $7.9 billion raised in 2013. But tech companies are hardly printing money. And talk of a bubble remains just plain silly.

4. China rules: This year will be remembered for the monster Alibaba IPO offering, followed by China’s JD.com offering that raised $1.8 billion. Those were the only two tech companies to make the list of the year’s 10 largest IPOs. And with China’s Internet population more than double that of the U.S., the center of the tech world could continue its shift to Asia.

None of these things should dampen the tech industry’s celebration of a solid year. But they’re a good reminder that Silicon Valley shouldn’t get overconfident when it comes to IPOs and think just any company with a little momentum can go public. Investors can afford to be selective.

And, really, that’s probably a good thing for all of us.

For O’Brien’s original article in Venture Beat, click here